February Investment Comments
The S&P 500 produced a total return of 31.5% in 2019. That huge advance is particularly astonishing considering that aggregate corporate earnings barely grew at all. According to the 1/10/20 edition of FactSet Earnings Insight by John Butters, analysts expect full-year 2019 earnings to average a meager 0.2% growth with revenue growth of 3.9%. Roughly speaking, this means the year’s entire rally is currently manifested in higher P/E multiples. We can think of some reasons why the current investment climate supports higher valuations than the climate of just 12 months ago, but 31.5%? That is a lot to explain.
For starters, those modest corporate growth numbers are a bit of a red herring, weighed down by low energy prices and industrial sector softness that will probably turn out to be temporary. More on this below. Overall, the U.S. economy remains on solid footing. Measured unemployment is holding steady at 3.5%. Normal wage growth is running at approximately 3%, fairly strong.
Indeed, estimates say that corporate growth should improve markedly in 2020. Analysts currently expect 9.4% aggregate EPS growth on 5.4% revenue growth in the year ahead. Those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt because analyst estimates tend to be overoptimistic. At this time a year ago, analysts expected 6.9% earnings growth and 5.5% revenue growth for 2019, only slightly lower than the current forward-looking estimates.
We also note that some of 2019’s growth was lost to currency fluctuations. Despite the Federal Reserve turning more dovish throughout the year, the U.S. dollar is up more than 3% against the euro over the past 12 months. It is also slightly higher against the yuan and the yen. It is almost hard to believe that ultra-accommodative U.S. monetary policy has not hurt the dollar relative to foreign currencies, but easy money seems to be the one policy that all the world’s governments agree on.
When overnight bank lending rates spiked recently, hinting that bond dealers may be struggling to pass along tidal waves of low-interest debt, the Federal Reserve came to the rescue with yet more easy credit. When the underlying problem looks like “too much debt,” and when the solution is easier short-term credit for bond dealers, that sounds like a recipe for inflation. Inflation expectations, as derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), have moved higher in response. A late-year commodity rally, spurred by thawing U.S.-China trade relations, ensured that most commodities outpaced CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation for the year. Energy was the only notable laggard in this department. Gold rose 21%. Priced in gold, the S&P 500 advanced a more pedestrian 9% last year.
The market’s tremendous rally produced some noticeable disconnects between business results and stock market performance. The industrial sector offers the sharpest example. President Trump’s trade war, combined with Brexit uncertainties, made both U.S. and European businesses reluctant to invest in 2019. Boeing’s 737 Max disruptions hung over the aerospace industry, which has been an important growth engine during this long bull market. In the aggregate, industrial stocks are likely to show slightly lower revenue for 2019, with FactSet also expecting EPS to decline 3.6%. Undeterred, the SPDR ETF tracking the sector gained 30% for the year. Investors are clearly looking forward to a brighter future.
Markets look forward, not back, and some of the market’s strong year can probably be attributed to investor optimism around the upcoming election. Stocks typically perform the best during the third and fourth years of a presidency. Markets also like certainty, responding favorably to signs the remaining Democratic candidates for president are turning to the middle. On November 15th, Senator Elizabeth Warren unveiled a new healthcare policy model that was more moderate than the single-payor model she had previously voiced support for. The stock market interpreted Warren’s subtle compromise favorably, especially for the healthcare sector. Healthcare stocks were in the doldrums throughout 2019 but outpaced the broader market in November and December.
Michael Bloomberg joined the race in late November. Bloomberg was once a Democrat, but won elected office as a Republican before swapping his affiliation to “Independent.” Currently polling 4th or 5th amongst the field, his candidacy looks like another example of moderation gaining traction.
2019 was a year of asset price inflation underpinned by dovish central banking, solid U.S. economic performance, and improving investor confidence. Bargains now look scarce. Investors’ challenge, as always, is to do their best to provide for their future, and we continue to see some opportunities to earn respectable total returns in the stock market.
Miles Putnam, CFA